presents

“The Meaning of the 21st Century - a vital blueprint for ensuring our future”

by
Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO

on
Monday, 4 August 2008

We are delighted to welcome again Sir Crispin Tickell, the world’s most distinguished environmentalist, to speak on “The Meaning of the 21st Century - a vital blueprint for ensuring our future”. In this lecture, the most vocal environmentalist for over the last 25 years discusses, in layman’s terms, the prosects for saving our vulnerable planet. Sir Crispin has recently been honoured because the new world climate change centre in Mexico is to be named after him.

Prospects for this century include an alarming variety of possible disasters but also amazing opportunities. So far few have tried, or even dared, to look at all the factors or to see them in terms of each other. It is this extraordinary cross of possibilities that is the central theme of this lecture.

Since the industrial revolution began in England around 250 years ago, our small animal species has been changing conditions for almost all sorts of life on the planet. For those of us who live in industrial countries, it has been a bonanza with more consumption of resources, higher living standards and greater longevity. But humans, like any other species in expansion, are coming up against the environmental stops. These stops are well known, and at the beginning of the 21st century are increasingly evident. They include population increase on an epic scale, damage to the natural environment, depletion of resources, ranging from oil to fish stocks, accumulation of toxic wastes, pollution of water both fresh and salt, changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere with climate change, and destruction of the diversity of other living organisms on which we totally depend.

The living environment of the Earth has changed constantly since life began almost 4 billion years ago. The complexity of the total ecosystem as it has evolved, and the degree of dependence between the component parts, surpasses current knowledge and understanding. In general terms though, the biological and physical elements seem to have regulated themselves within variable limits, and the Earth system has proved remarkably resilient.

There is thus a precedent for most things in the history of the Earth, yet humankind’s present circumstances are unprecedented. There is a frightening picture of what could happen if humankind continues to press the Earth system beyond its natural limits. If humankind gets it right, the planet is going to be sustainable and manageable. If humankind gets it wrong, our civilization is going to be steadily destroyed. If humankind establishes an appropriate “highway code” for the future, the 21^st century and centuries beyond it can be more magnificent than anything previously imagined because technology will enhance human creativity and culture in ways enormously beyond anything that is generally realised today.

Establishing a “highway code” for this purpose is not easy. It requires thinking differently across the whole spectrum of human affairs, from respect for the environment, control on the use of violence in international affairs and controls on new cheap weapons of mass destruction. In his lecture, Sir Crispin looks at the possible remedies for the 21^st Century, which include how to control of weapons of mass destruction, reduction of environmental damage, reforestation, protection of biodiversity, and new configurations of towns, business, industry and population generally.

Sir Crispin is the Director of the Policy Foresight Programme at Oxford University. He holds positions and lectures at numerous other British and United States universities. Most of his distinguished career was spent in the Diplomatic Service. He was Cabinet Secretary to the President of the European Union (1977-80), British Ambassador to Mexico (1981-83), Permanent Secretary of the Overseas Development Administration (1984-87), and British Permanent Representative to the United Nations (1987-90). He achieved fame in this role for his extraordinary diplomacy during the first, successful, Gulf War. He then became Warden of Green College, Oxford (1990-97) and Chancellor of the University of Kent (1996-2006).

His positions are too numerous to list, but include President of the Royal Geographical Society (1990-93), Chairman of the Board of the Climate Institute of Washington DC (1990-2002), Convenor of the Government Panel on Sustainable Development (1994-2000) and Inaugural Senior Visiting Fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment (2002). Since 1992 he has been a member of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development. He is author of Climate Change and World Affairs (1977 and 1986). He has also contributed to many books on environmental issues, including human population problems, and conservation of biodiversity. He has received many honours and distinctions including the highest honour for foreign service as a Knight Grand Cross of the Most Distinguished Order of St Michael and St George.

Members and their guests are most welcome to attend this lecture, which is HK$100 for Members and HK$150 for others.